Demand More

It is easy to forget the basic truth that the winner of the American presidential election in November will not be the person who is most qualified.  It will not even be the person who gets the most votes (as Al Gore found to his detriment in 2000).  Rather, it will be the person who wins the most states.

And in order to win the most states, you need to appeal to a majority of voters.  Not an overwhelming majority; the winner-take-all system of presidential politics only requires you to secure 51 percent of each state in order to carry it.

Those are the rules of the game.  And if the campaign of Barack Obama does not change its tactics, and soon, it may find itself losing as a result of the selection of Sarah Palin as the Republican candidate for Vice President.

At heart, Americans are populists, and they love candidates with populist streaks.  They flock to candidates who they can relate to and who speak their language, even if those candidates do not end up winning.  This is the double-edged sword of traditional populist candidates: outside of the elite class, they may have been able to garner popular support, but could never actually win high office.

The history of American politics is littered with the corpses of populist candidates who were indeed a force to be reckoned with, yet who could never master the fact that you had to carry states in order to become president, and not just be popular with the people.   Ross Perot secured 18 percent of the popular vote in 1992 — a stunning figure — but failed to carry a single state; as a result, he was never a real threat to the status quo.

Yet enter John McCain, a seasoned politician, and his choice for Vice President, Sarah Palin.  While many have declared this move a sign of desperation by the McCain campaign, it reflects McCain’s reputation as a “maverick”, and is politically deft.  Like his populist hero, Theodore Roosevelt, McCain is gambling that Palin’s charm and ready ability to connect with average Americans will produce victory.  She is truly an outsider to Washington, which makes her selection a gamble, but also provides that populist appeal that simply cannot be manufactured.

Given the tone and spirit of Ms. Palin’s speech as she accepted her party’s nomination for Vice President, it is clear that she will be a formidable force in this race.  Many American voters, who yearn for a politician who will “feel their pain,” will be attracted her to plain-speaking candor.  She has presented herself as the average mother next door, the hockey-mom who joined the PTA and then suddenly found herself governor of the biggest state in the Union.  This type of caricature will appeal to many people.

In addition, she toes the Republican Party’s line on militarism quite effectively, making it seem patriotic, even maternal, to call for continued war against all enemies.  Obama tried to out-maneuver McCain’s foreign policy expertise by selecting Joe Biden as his vice president, but Biden’s in-your-face mannerisms may be too uncouth to an American electorate that approves of torture so long as it’s in the dark.  Who do you want comforting your children that what we do to terrorists, while abhorrent, is necessary? Americans may prefer the softer features of Palin as such a spokesperson for this attitude.

It does not matter that Ms. Palin is potentially ignorant of foreign affairs or economic theory.  She is not trained in a profession, such as Obama and Biden (both are lawyers).  But this will only help her.  Her lack of credentials will appeal to American voters in the same way that George W. Bush’s lack of finesse appeared to help him against the then stiff and avuncular Al Gore.

In America’s recent electoral history, the importance of capturing the populist sentiment is well known.  Bush won in 2000 due to this appeal. In 2004, the war made this easy — Bush cautioned that as a “war president,” the nation had no choice but to select him once more in order to secure victory in the War on Terror, and the nation complied.

Before the summertime, it looked as if Obama was the candidate who had tapped into the populist spirit.  He ran on his anti-war stance and his outsider status in the Senate.  His internet fundraising is legendary, as well as his ability to bring out young voters.

Now, his populist appeal is in considerable danger.  Obama’s move to the center of the political spectrum following the primaries has not won favors amongst his base who were initially energized by his campaign.  His selection of Joe Biden as Vice President was not the spirited choice many had hoped for.

In politics, experience and intelligence, even charisma, mean little if they do not translate into victory.  And in America, the people vote for those politicians who give off that populist appeal.  Americans are guided by an innocent, almost naive sense that the politicians who connect with them are the ones who will help them.  Sarah Palin gives this impression.

I am not suggesting that Ms. Palin is qualified to hold high political office.  She certainly does not have the academic experience of Obama, nor the political experience of Biden. And like all bona fide populists, she is terribly unpredicable.  There is no way to know how she will fall on a certain issue ahead of time.  This is why populists typically run third party campaigns, and why populists can oftentimes be dangerous — too popular for their own good.  The same charisma that has propelled her to the spotlight may become a threat to the republic itself.  With the people at your side, the power of a politician becomes truly unstoppable.

Nonetheless, there is no test to become President, and no need for qualifications other than to be 35 years of age and born on American soil.  The only test is given out by the people themselves.  In 2000, the people chose George W. Bush, albeit with the help of the Supreme Court.  In 2004, the people once more chose Bush.  Ms. Palin’s appeal to the electorate is a reflection not so much of her own experiences, but the desires of those who will vote for her.  Americans do not want someone they view as an elitist to occupy the highest position in the country, for whatever reason.  If Obama does not realize this now, then his chances of winning will dwindle.  He must seek to recapture the populist mantle back from McCain and Palin in some way, or else he will face defeat in November.

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