Playing with fire
July 9th, 2008 by I.C.
Since the United States invaded Iraq five years ago, tensions between Iran and the U.S. have simmered and then receded, and then simmered again. Indeed, there have been many points over the last five years in which war with Iran seemed inevitable.
Perhaps if the invasion and occupation of Iraq had been more “successful” from the American perspective — that is, if Iraq had been subdued and made a de facto American territory — American troops may have been in Tehran, and even Damascus after a short stint in Baghdad.
But the occupation of Iraq was poorly thought out, and remains so. This is why seven years after invading Afghanistan, and five years after invading Iraq, the United States remains trapped in a hopeless battle against rebel insurgents.
Yet even with the failure of the current wars, the threat of a new war with Iran refuses to go away. According to famed reporter Seymour Hersh, the United States has significantly increased Special Forces operations in Iran, in an attempt to foment sectarian violence and look for clues regarding Iranian nuclear weapons programs.
Covert operations are not the only item on the agenda. In recent weeks, Israel has staged massive war games, insinuating to observers that such activities are a dress rehearsal for an assault on Iran. Iran has responded to these threats by firing missiles and stating that, “Tel Aviv and the US fleet” would be “set on fire” if Iran is attacked in any way.
How much of this is rhetoric, versus actual threat of war? This is difficult to say. Even while saner heads appear to be controlling diplomacy, at least for the moment, certain factions within the American, Israeli, and Iranian governments favor war as an outcome. A third war in the Middle East would give American neo-conservatives the opportunity to waive the banner of the “war on terror” and cast a dark vision of fear once more on the population, stymieing Democratic Party victories in November and feeding the ever-deafening military-industrial juggernaut.
In Israel, as well, war would allow the ruling Kadima Party an opportunity to divert attention from a host of domestic scandals that have forced the Israeli Prime Minister to schedule early elections.
And in Iran, war would allow the ruling elite an opportunity to maintain its grip on power while blaming the country’s domestic and economic problems on outside forces. As in the United States and Israel, war serves an important purpose of providing a distraction from the real pressing problems of the day.
It is probably fair to say that at this point, war is not the desired outcome of any three of these countries. On the other hand, none of these countries would shirk from a war, as long as they characterize any war as an “act of self-defense.” This is not as difficult as it sounds: Hitler famously stated that his invasion of Poland was done in self-defense, and the Germans ate it up.
And while it may seem stunning that Americans would accept a third war in the Middle East, the power of the mass media to influence the public mood cannot be understated. If Iran is labeled as a “terrorist threat” and is made an enemy in the rubric of the war on terror, Americans will accept another war. This is a sad but honest statement of the American public today, and is the reason why Barack Obama (in yet another disappointing gesture of his candidacy) has characterized Iran — a third world nation with no ability to attack the United States — as a “great threat” to the United States.
At this very moment, making its way through the United States Congress is HR 362 (supported in part by a militant Israeli lobbying group, AIPAC), which calls for an embargo against Iran of “refined petroleum products”, and which would impose a “stringent inspection requirements” on all ships entering and leaving Iran. Under international law, an embargo against another country is an act of war. While not calling for war, such a law would make war inevitable. Passage of HR 362 could happen within the next few weeks.
No doubt there will be further developments in this situation, but it is clear that the United States, Israel, and Iran are playing with fire. We may not be speeding towards war, but as of now, we are almost certainly stumbling into it.
