The Nightmare Scenario

Where an empire’s navy goes, so lie its interests. The Spanish, Dutch, British, and now the Americans have all used naval forces as their primary tool in maintaining global power.

The fact that the American navy is now flexing its muscles in the Persian Gulf is thus a troubling sign of things to come. In addition to a flurry of American Navy vessels being directed to the region — including assault ships and the aircraft carrier USS Stennis, which will join the current aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower so as to display “the United States’ resolve to bring security and stability to the region“ — the current president recently nominated Admiral William Fallon to serve as general commander for American forces in the Middle East. The selection of an admiral is an odd choice considering that the United States is engaged in two land wars in the region. What is a sailor going to know about fighting insurgents in Afghanistan or Iraq?

Probably not much. But they would know a lot about how to deal with America’s main maritime adversary in the Persian Gulf: Iran.

Rumors of a coming conflict between the United States and Iran have been talked about for more than a year now, but very recently the American government has sharply ratcheted its rhetoric against the country. Last week the American president authorized troops in Iraq to “kill or capture” Iranians found operating inside Iraq’s borders. This week he reiterated that the US “will respond firmly” if Iran continues to interfere in Iraq. He then offered the unreassuring qualification that America was not necessarily planning an attack against the country.

Not quite coincidentally, the American media is now carrying reports of suspected Iranian involvement with the Iraqi insurgency. In a span of just a few short days, Iran has been accused of training a group of Iraqis who infiltrated a small military compound and killed five American soldiers, supplying the infamous IEDs that are causing so many American casualties, and even arming the insurgents with rockets and rocket-propelled grenades. These claims may in fact be the first bricks of what will soon grow into a causus belli for war against the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Sometime this week, the heat will go up again with the release of a secret dossier by the American government which will supposedly detail evidence of Iran’s alleged complicity in attacks on American troops in Iraq. The dossier, once revealed, could provide yet another step towards airstrikes.

European observers have noticed this trend and are worried. “The clock is ticking,” one European official said to The Guardian. “Military action has come back on to the table more seriously than before. The language in the US has changed.” A diplomat tied to the work of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna said, “There’s anxiety everywhere you turn . . . The Europeans are very concerned the shit could hit the fan.”

War with Iran would truly be a nightmare scenario. But it is a very real possibility. As Iraq stumbles ever more into chaos and disintegration, its oil resources are up for grabs. Iran seeks influence because influence leads to friendly terms with the power players in the area, which then leads to better control over the oil. A recent report released by the Brookings Institute concluded that the increasing likelihood of the break-up of Iraq leads to almost inevitable confrontation with Iran. Civil war in Iraq would turn Iran into “the unambiguous adversary” of the United States.

And there is considerable domestic pressure which may portend war. With the current president’s poll numbers at 30%, one of the vice president’s loyal minions on trial, and the race for the next presidency heating up, the push for accountability may threaten the power of the current office holder and his de facto prime minister. There is no easier way for an unpopular leader to maintain power than by creating an enemy that needs to be attacked; and with post-9/11 anxieties as strong as ever, the Ayatollahs would make an easy target.

The situation is similarly grim for the governing parties in Israel, a country that would no doubt participate in some fashion if Iran were attacked. Only an abyssmal 14% of Israelis approve of their prime minister, who is still reeling from a failed war effort in Lebanon, and the current president of Israel has been forced to take a “leave of absence” over allegations of sexual harassment and rape. For the Israeli leadership, war with Iran would also be a helpful distraction.

The USS Stennis will arrive in the Persian Gulf by late February. The next thirty days should reveal how soon the nightmare scenario is set to unfold.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 31st, 2007 at 11:44 pm and is filed under Executive Power, Government Accountability, International Relations, Structure and System, The Middle East, World War III. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.