Civil war is here

From The Guardian:

Last September, James Fearon, a professor at Stamford university and one of the world’s leading experts on civil wars, gave testimony to a committee on national security in the US House of Representatives. His remarks were largely ignored by the US media, though they were noted by a couple of bloggers (Abu Aardvark and Hootsbuddy).

After saying that “by any reasonable definition” Iraq is in the midst of a civil war, Prof Fearon pointed out that civil wars typically last a long time (more than a decade on average) and usually end with decisive military victories (in at least 75% of cases). “Successful power-sharing agreements to end civil wars are rare, occurring in one in six cases, at best.”

He continued:

The current US strategy in Iraq aims to help put in a place a national government that shares power and oil revenues among parties closely linked to the combatants in the civil war. The hope is that our presence will allow the power-sharing agreement to solidify and us to exit, leaving a stable, democratic government and a peaceful country.

The historical record on civil war suggests that this strategy is highly unlikely to succeed, whether the US stays in Iraq for six more months or six more years (or more) … Thus, ramping up or “staying the course” amount to delay tactics, not plausible recipes for success.

Prof Fearon went on to draw a number of parallels with Lebanon’s 15-year civil war, noting that it came to an end when the US and Israel agreed to let Syria take control (a matter they have subsequently changed their minds about).

“Staying the course” in Iraq may put off political disintegration and major escalation of the civil war, Prof Fearon continued, but it is unlikely to produce a democratic government that can stand on its own after US troops are gone.

“The most likely scenario following reduction of US troop presence is the escalation of a Lebanon-like civil war,” he said – adding that it is unlikely to make much difference whether American troops stay for one more year of five.

(the rest)

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This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 28th, 2006 at 7:43 pm and is filed under International Relations, The Middle East. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.

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