For weeks, it had looked like Iran had successfully split off China and Russia from any deal. The fact that a unified offer was made at all was an unexpected twist in this long game of diplomacy.
The offer remains shrouded in secrecy, and the fact that the US pulled such a breakthrough at the 11th hour only heightens the mystery. Supposedly, the offer would allow Iran to buy spare parts for civilian aircraft made by US manufacturers, lift restrictions on the use of US technology in agriculture, provide light water nuclear reactors and enriched fuel to Iran, and open the door to Iran’s membership in the World Trade Organisation.
The Iranians themselves have given surprisingly open statements concerning the proposal. Iran’s nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, said that the offer contained both “positive steps” and “ambiguities”, and that talks with EU foreign policy head Javier Solana (who had personally delivered the proposal) were “constructive”.
It is too soon to declare a complete shift in the direction of this crisis. These developments are encouraging, but one wonders where this sudden change in tone is coming from exactly, and where it’s going. While the specifics of the offer remain unknown, it appears that the US gave up on its insistence that Iran face the prospect of military airstrikes. Why this key plank of US policy has suddenly disappeared — and whether it might suddenly reemerge — is unclear.
If Iran accepts the offer, then the crisis ends. Iran gets nuclear technology from the United States, while the United States can walk away claiming that it halted a potential nuclear weapons program in a Middle Eastern country. A successful end might even herald the beginnings of a saner relationship between the US and Iran.
A sucker punch hits twice as hard; there is no harm in being guardedly optimistic, but it would be foolish to declare this crisis is over.
