Projections

We are at the threshold of a critical turning point in history. It is possible to now identify events which might act as triggers of change to our world:

Flashpoint #1: War with Iran. This flashpoint should be well-known to readers of this site by now. Sadly, but not surprisingly, negotiations this week between Iran and the West ended with no agreement, and Iran was referred to the United Nations Security Council this past Wednesday for possible sanctions. We can expect serious developments on this front as early as next week.

The United States is calling for a “strong statement” from the Security Council against Iran. American Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton told reporters, “We’re going to press for as vigorous a response in the council as we can get and hope that that gets the Iranians’ attention…If the Iranians do not back off from their continued aggressive pursuit of nuclear weapons, we’ll have to make a decision of what the next step will be.” Reports indicate that the Americans want a Security Council resolution backed by the threat of military force that would demand Iran abandon uranium enrichment and answer outstanding questions about its nuclear program. The United Kingdom is now declaring that Iran will have the technology to build a nuclear bomb by the end of the year, which presents the specter of military action by at least the end of 2006, if not sooner.

Meanwhile, President George W. Bush is now informing the American public that Iran presents a “grave national security concern,” echoing language that was used against Iraq prior to the American invasion. In an intriguing moment of candor, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov remarked that he felt a sense of “déjà vu,” referring to the pre-Iraq invasion drumbeat.

I believe that the United States is now staring into the abyss of a larger global conflagration. I pray that our leaders will step back from the immense bloodshed which will flow from an attack against Iran. There is still time for some negotiated outcome, but as I have indicated on this website since December, I fear the decision to attack has already been made.

Flashpoint #2: The Israel-Palestine conflict. A second flashpoint that is closely related to the situation with Iran is the disintegrating relationship between Israel and Palestine. Ever since the victory of the Hamas party in the Palestinian elections, Israel, with the backing of the United States, has waged a campaign of isolotion against Hamas and the Palestinian people more generally. This campaign reached a potential tipping point today with Israel’s announcement that it would unilaterally redraw Israel’s borders with Palestine by 2010. This has infuriated Hamas, and they have gone so far as to call the Israeli plan a “declaration of war.”

The Israel-Palestine conflict feeds into the larger confrontation between the West and Iran, and vice versa. As each situation deteriorates, it feeds into negative perceptions of the other side and creates an almost inevitable atmosphere of mistrust. If relations unexpectedly sour between Israel and Palestine, we might see this longer and more intractable problem act as the spark for a larger powder keg.

Flashpoint #3: The global economy. Even while nations are now positioning themselves for potential war, there is also a growing threat of instability in the global economy, an instability which might spiral into economic collapse. This really deserves a longer post, and perhaps I will write one, but for now it suffices to remark that the engine of the global economy — spending by American consumers — is showing real signs of slowdown. Stagnant wages, increasing debt, high energy prices, and the concentration of wealth in the hands of a few people have left the American economy in its worst structural shape since the 1970s, and possibly since the Great Depression. Any variable in the complicated economic equation which keeps America afloat — a spike in energy prices, a large influx of dollars in currency exchanges, a crash in the housing market, a default of a large corporation like General Motors — would likely cause an economic tailspin.

Economics forms a large part of the reason why conflict with Iran is brewing: Iran’s plans to open an Oil Bourse at the end of March will cause serious harm to American economic interests, and I believe that it is the a major underlying reason for the push for sanctions against Iran.

Flashpoint #4: Environmental catastrophe. Finally, it is necessary to comment on the great darkhorse of our era, the ruinous catastrophes that will be caused by an out-of-control planet. Just as Katrina came out of nowhere to level a city, human-induced climate change promises an unending series of ecological disasters which will batter the physical foundations of civilization. Hurricanes in the nature of Katrina, or a significant heat-wave, flood, or drought would alter life for millions within the course of weeks. The lack of food, water, and shelter which follow such disasters could then trigger larger changes if they occurred in sensitive or violent-prone areas.

All closed systems tend towards disorder. This is not only a law of physics, but also a law of societies and civilizations. We are now witnessing an expansion of entropy throughout the global system, and it is only a matter of time before such volatility erupts.

This entry was posted on Friday, March 10th, 2006 at 12:30 pm and is filed under Imperial Decline, International Relations, Structure and System, The Middle East, The West, World War III. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.